from Warsaw, Poland
The rising Polish economy, a new actor outside the euro area.
During the last years, in the face of the global economic slowdown, Poland has become a relevant exception. According to the EU forecasts, Warsaw will be one of the fastest economies in the European area. The macro economic data provided by Eurostat are the clearest examples of the “Polish miracle”. Beyond the consistent GDP growth of 4.2% per annum and one of the best European Industrial outputs, unemployment has fallen to lowest levels since 1989 (Trading Economy,2019).
Moreover, thanks to a specific strategy launched by the Polish government, as shown by the New Investment Support act in 2018, Poland is becoming a pole for investors and foreign workers (Deloitte, 2018). In particular, Polish institutions have created specific investment zones (especially located near the most relevant cities of Poland) where firms can benefit from tax advantages. Consequently, different areas of the country are becoming attractive for international companies. Warsaw itself has been recognised as the 3rd most European business-friendly city in the ranking published by fDi intelligence in 2018 (fDi intelligence 2018).
From Krynica to Karpacz, the economic relevance of the business Polish forums
Another proof of the Polish “Golden age” concerns the presence of various forums which have increased considerably their importance in different sectors. Surely, the most relevant is the Economic Forum of Krynica, called the “Davos of Central Europe”. This meeting attracts annually thousands of business leaders coming also from Germany, Russia and Benelux in order to discuss political, micro and macro economic items. Beyond the Krynica meeting, also other more sectorial conferences are becoming strategic in different sectors. The Warsaw Security, the European-Ukraine and IV Industry Forums are just some examples of the Polish relevance for the European entrepreneurs.
Especially the last one, held in the Ski resort of Karpacz at the end of the year, is becoming a crucial meeting point for politicians and businessmen coming from Visegrad countries. Considering the current economic status of these states, members of firms coming from Western Europe join the Industry forum in order to improve the activity of their businesses. It is no coincidence that officers of relevant companies such as Toyota or Leonardo attended panels with local Ministers, politicians and scholars.
The Industry forum mission
With more than 50 panels, the meeting has a double goal. Firstly, in front of the relevant and surprising development of the Visegrad group, politicians and economists gather at the conference in order to understand the next step in order to reduce the gap with Western Europe in different sectors. Considering this target, panels concerned a wide range of items, such as: the local and regional communication infrastructures, agricultural development and security. At the same time, private and public actors can also talk about future projects and partnerships on the mentioned topic. This one is also the goal of the organizer committee, Foundation Institute for Eastern Studies, which also arranges other relevant forums like that one in Krynica.
Euro vs National currency: still a dilemma for Poland? An answer by the Think Tank Trinità dei Monti
In this background, the possibility for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary to join the Euro is still a controversial topic which divides politicians and scholars. While these countries have independent Central Banks which can launch expansionary monetary policies, on the other hand there are still some economic barriers due to the different currencies with the rest of Europe. The IV Industry Forum organized a specific panel in order to debate on this issue. Among the panelists, the Young Think Tanker Mario Ghioldi, explained the advantages and disadvantages for Italy and its firms after the Italian entrance in the Euro area.
Highlighting some micro economic aspects, the Think Tanker described one of the “original sins” of the Italian economy, the lack of structural reforms in order to enhance the productivity of national firms. In front of a low level of productivity, Italian goods could be competitive in the international thanks to the devaluation of the national currency. The years before the official entrance of Italy inside the European currency had to be distinguished by governmental policies to reduce the productivity gap among Italian and the European firms. Only in this way, Italian companies could remain competitive without the use of the devaluation tools. In front of that, one of the conclusions of the suggestion for the governments of Visegrad countries is to launch policies to enhance the local productivity. This could bring a general asset for the Central European countries regardless of their entrance into the Euro area.
Bibliography
fDi Intelligence (2018). Special report (online), Available at https://www.fdiintelligence.com/ftauthor/view/Valeria+Colombo+y+Raquel+Mu%C3%B1oz (Accesse 8 Feb 2020)
Deloitte (2018). Poland is set to come a large special economic zone (online), Available at https://www2.deloitte.com/pl/en/pages/tax/articles/tax-alerts/polska-staje-sie-specjalna-strefa-ekonomiczna.html (Accessed 8 Feb 2020).
Trading Economy (2019). Poland GDP Annual Growth Rate (online), Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/gdp-growth-annual (Accessed 8 Feb 2020).
***
Autore dell’articolo*: Mario Ghioldi, Dr. in International Studies and Diplomacy presso L’Università degli Studi di Siena; Master in Diritti Umani presso SIOI.
***
Nota della redazione del Think Tank Trinità dei Monti
Come sempre pubblichiamo i nostri lavori per stimolare altre riflessioni, che possano portare ad integrazioni e approfondimenti.
* I contenuti e le valutazioni dell’intervento sono di esclusiva responsabilità dell’autore.
Editor’s Note – Think Tank Trinità dei Monti
As always, we publish our articles to encourage debates, and to spread knowledge and original and alternative points of view.
* The contents and the opinions of this article belong to the author(s) of this article only.