from Warsaw, Poland

   DOI: 10.48256/TDM2012_00108

The impact of climate change: a comprehensive perspective is required

In the last decades policy makers, activists and analysts have stressed the impact of climate change on nature, animals and humans. One of the most relevant summary is expressed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which underlined how human-made greenhouse gas emissions have influenced changes in weather events such as storms, heat waves, droughts, floods, and wildfires, impacting environmental balances (IPCC, 2014). Various studies have focused on how climate change impacts humanitarian needs and processes, concerning food security, migration phenomena, health or livelihood (Connolly-Boutin & Smit. 2016). Taking into consideration how global warming and climate variability both affect the above-mentioned humanitarian fields in different ways, it seems important to have a comprehensive perspective in order to understand the complex links among these issues (Eriksen et al, 2007). In particular, researchers are giving specific attention to the vulnerabilities of special contexts which have the predisposition to be more affected by climate change (Carona, 2004).

 

Which dimensions determine population vulnerabilities?

As previously stated, the impact of climate change in humanitarian contexts is mainly influenced by people’s vulnerability to climate variability. Considering the importance of the topic, in the past years analysts tried to describe vulnerabilities with different definitions (Klein 2009; Brooks 2013). A generic one refers to “the degree to which people or the things they value are susceptible to, or are unable to cope with, the adverse impacts of climate change. Thus, vulnerability determines how severe the impacts of climate change might be” (OECD, 2016).

Vulnerability to climate change includes three different dimensions: Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity (Norvegian Red Cross, 2019). The first one is the degree to which people and their social values could be exposed to climate variation. Sensitivity is defined as the degree to which the population considered could be harmed by climate change. Finally, the adaptive capacity is the degree to which they could mitigate the potential for harm by taking action to reduce exposure or sensitivity.

 

The internal and external factors

These dimensions are influenced by different external and internal factors, and the Norwegian Red Cross highlights three of them: political and economic marginalization, presence of armed conflicts and weakness of institutions. Moreover, climate change effects could have a higher impact on those economies dependent on the agricultural sector, the most exposed to weather variations (Fisher et al 2012). It seems important to analyze in a deeper way the mentioned factors in order to understand how the climate variability impact increases in specific areas.

 

Political and economic marginalization

Considering these factors, climate change is a global challenge which involves all populations; nevertheless, marginalized people are more affected by climate vulnerability. Moreover, even the presence of strong institutions can only partially mitigate the population vulnerability if a part of the society is excluded by limited access to energy and resources. Local policies launched in different sectors (e.g. food security, resiliency or risk reduction) have different impacts on territories due to the presence of marginalized groups (Walch, 2018). Taking into consideration the World Bank data (Oppenheimer et al. 2014), regions with economic and political inequalities overlap with areas where climate risk is higher. As a matter of fact, groups living in these zones are usually more vulnerable by having a reduced coping capacity. A clear example is provided by the erratic rainfall in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this area, these kinds of precipitation have a stronger impact in those societies where a group is politically and/or socially marginalized (Stevenson; Serraj; & Cassman 2014).

 

The challenges for people left behind

Following the Norwegian Red Cross data, a specific focus concerns the following subjects: indigenous people, youth/children and women (Norvegian Red Cross, 2014). Beyond the issues related to identity and culture, indigenous communities have lacked sufficient space inside the decision-making processes; thus, they may be excluded in the climate change policies launched by local institutions. Similarly, in many developing countries, women do not have enough space in decision making bodies. Moreover, they generally have less income and less access to information than their male counterparts (Alston, 2013). Due to this background, women are not able to protect themselves in the face of the humanitarian consequences brought about by climate change. Extreme weather conditions could also have a stronger impact on children’s health, often jeopardized by undernutrition (Myers et al 2017). Moreover, climate change  affects key elements that allow for youth’s development, such as water, food systems and infrastructures.

 

The negative impact of conflict- trap on climate vulnerability

In the last decades, scholars have stressed the climate change effects on conflicts (Garret et al 2006; Tol, 2009). Nevertheless, a new approach carried out by different researchers underlined how these same conflicts can have a negative impact on climate vulnerability. First of all, armed disputes have a negative impact on the economic development of the country involved. Beyond destroying infrastructures and weakening the local economies, armed disputes jeopardize foreign development interventions or investments (Gates et al, 2012). At the same time, conflicts decrease institution and group abilities to adapt themselves to the new climate change challenges (Adger et al, 2014).

Considering the strong relation among conflicts, agriculture and food security, factors strongly linked with climate change (Gregory, Ingram & Brklacich, 2005), the impact of conflict on climate vulnerability gains further, stronger  relevance. Indeed, conflict tends to occur in farming areas where agriculture is the most relevant sector (Norwegian Red Cross, 2019). It is not a coincidence that more than 40 percent of the countries affected by food crises in 2017 faced conflicts and climate shocks (FAO et al, 2018). Taking into consideration this background, analysts are trying to extend the concept of “vicious cycle” to include armed disputes, food security and climate change, in what is described as  the  conflict trap (Reigh & Urdal, 2007). This term is referred to the negative spiral where armed disputes increase violence and vulnerabilities, which are two of the main causes of conflict (Hegre, 2017).

 

The (un)covered role played by local institutions.

In the end, local institutions have an important role in order to improve  people’s resilience and reduce the climate vulnerability in the face  of  climate change. Around the world there are many examples of governments which have struggled to deal with natural emergencies (storms, floods or droughts) and the ensuing dramatic consequences (Oppenheimer, Campos, Warren, et al. 2014). Humanitarian crises from Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti and Somalia show how local institutions are not able to provide support to natural disasters and emergencies to people. Moreover, beyond the institutional weakness, also a high level of corruption could jeopardize effective adaptation policies and strategies (Adger, 2010)

Differently, efficient institutions can promote the adaptation responses in the face of  climatic challenges. As confirmed by a United Nations analysis on climate adaptation, local governments are important actors in facilitating household adaptation capacity through interventions or cooperation with external institutional or private bodies (Agrawal. & Perrin 2009). Conflicts and natural disasters are two clear examples of how the roles covered by local government are fundamental. Firstly, strong institutions contribute to diminishing the risk of conflict thanks to their abilities to monitor potential frictions inside the societies. Likewise, reliable public organizations play a crucial part in disaster risk reduction in those areas where the territorial control is not clear (Walch, 2018).

 

Conclusions

Climate change has global consequences. Nevertheless, climate variability impacts more severely those areas with particular vulnerabilities such as: conflicts, political and economic marginalization and  institutional weakness. In order to launch more effective long term policies and programs, the future efforts from academia, policy makers and civil society should take in consideration the above mentioned variables. Improving the institutional power, breaking the cycle between conflict and food security and reducing the social and economic marginalization could be the most efficient ways to reduce the impact of climate change on developing areas.

 

Bibliography A-E

Adger, W. N. (2010). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. In Der klimawandel (pp. 327-345). VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.

Adger, W. N., J. M. Pulhin, J. Barnett, et al. (2014), “Human Security,” in C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J.Dokken, et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II tothe Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press. 755–91.

Agrawal, A. & N. Perrin (2009), “Climate Adaptation, Local Institutions and Rural Livelihoods,” in WN.

Adger, I. Lorenzoni, & KL. O’Brien (eds.) Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance, Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press, 350–67.

Alston, M. (2013), “Introducing Gender and Climate Change: Research, Policy and Action,” in Alston, M. & K. Whittenbury (eds.) Research, Action and Policy: Addressing the Gendered Impacts of Climate Change, New York: Springer, 3-16.

Brooks, N. (2003). Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper, 38(38), 1-16.

Cardona, O. D. (2004). The need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk from a holistic perspective: a necessary review and criticism for effective risk management. Mapping vulnerability: Disasters, development and people, 17, 37-51.

Connolly-Boutin, L., & Smit, B. (2016). Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa. Regional Environmental Change, 16(2), 385-399.

Eriksen, S. E., Klein, R. J., Ulsrud, K., Næss, L. O., & O’Brien, K. (2007). Climate change adaptation and poverty reduction: Key interactions and critical measures. Report prepared for the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad). GECHS Report, 1

Bibliography F-M

FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO (2018), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018. Rome:FAO, 2018.

Fisher, A. C., Hanemann, W. M., Roberts, M. J., & Schlenker, W. (2012). The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather: comment. American Economic Review, 102(7), 3749-60.

Gates, S., H. Hegre, H. Mokleiv Nygård, & Håvard Strand (2012), “Development Consequences of Armed Conflict,” World Development 40(9): 1713–22.

Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. S., & Brklacich, M. (2005). Climate change and food security. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360(1463), 2139-2148

Hegre, H., NW. Metternich, H. Mokleiv Nygård, et al. (2017), “Evaluating the Scope and Intensity of the Conflict Trap,” Journal of Peace Research 54(2): 243–61. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684917; Hegre, H. & N. Sambanis (2006),”Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(4): 508–35.

IPCC (2014), supra note 1; Stott, PA., N. Christidis, FEL Otto, Y. Sun, et al. (2016), ”Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate-Related Events: Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate-Related Events,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 7(1):23–41

Klein, R. J. (2009). Identifying countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change: an academic or a political challenge?. Carbon & Climate Law Review, 284-291.

Myers, S. S., Smith, M. R., Guth, S., Golden, C. D., Vaitla, B., Mueller, N. D., … & Huybers, P. (2017). Climate change and global food systems: potential impacts on food security and undernutrition. Annual review of public health, 38, 259-277.

Bibliography N-Z

Norwegian Red Cross, (2019). Overlapping Vulnerabilities: The impacts of climate change on humanitarian needs. © 2019 PO Box 1, Grønland 0133 Oslo Norway

Oppenheimer, M., M. Campos, R. Warren, et al. (2014), “Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities.” in C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, et al. (eds.) Climate Change

2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press, 1039–1099

Raleigh, C., & Urdal, H. (2007). Climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict. Political geography, 26(6), 674-694.

Stevenson, J. R., Serraj, R., & Cassman, K. G. (2014). Evaluating conservation agriculture for small-scale farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Tol, R. S. (2009). The economic effects of climate change. Journal of economic perspectives, 23(2), 29-51.

Walch, C. (2018), “Disaster Risk Reduction amidst Armed Conflict: Informal Institutions, Rebel Groups, and Wartime Political Orders,” Disasters 42(S2): 39–64.

Walch, C. (2018), “Typhoon Haiyan: Pushing the Limits of Resilience? The Effect of Land Inequality on Resilience and Disaster Risk Reduction Policies in the Philippines,”

Critical Asian Studies 50(1): 122–35,

***

Autore dell’articolo*: Mario Ghioldi, Dr. in International Studies and Diplomacy presso L’Università degli Studi di Siena; Master in Diritti Umani presso SIOI.

***

Nota della redazione del Think Tank Trinità dei Monti

Come sempre pubblichiamo i nostri lavori per stimolare altre riflessioni, che possano portare ad integrazioni e approfondimenti. 

* I contenuti e le valutazioni dell’intervento sono di esclusiva responsabilità dell’autore.

Editor’s Note – Think Tank Trinità dei Monti

As always, we publish our articles to encourage debates, and to spread knowledge and original and alternative points of view.

* The contents and the opinions of this article belong to the author(s) of this article only.